Archive for March, 2012

We are getting more negative trades now because we are entering in trades before bar close, i am testing this system to know if it will be better entering trades after bar close or taking intrabar trades, i have added an ADX filter to MjoseScalper from tomorrow we will use an ADX trend strength filter to avoid trades when we are in a choppy market.

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This weekend i have created my first version of MjoseScalper automated system, I dont need to stay all the day in front of the computer with bloody eyes seeing a boring chart and waiting indicators give me the signal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The bad news is that i can not backtest this bot with Ninjatrader because Ninjatrader can not backtest with ticks or using intrabar orders, all orders are completed at the close of the bar. So I will need to test in realtime to see intrabar orders with Ninjatrader.

I tested today but it was not running all day, I have 1 negative trade and another positive, first thing i would like to see testing using this bot is to study if it will be better to wait until bar close or enter the intrabars trades. The first version of the bot use only ATR bands as confirmation to enter the trade and price to enter should 3 ticks before the ATR band to be in the range of prices and to have more probabilities.

First trade was negative, if this time i wait until bar close, this trade was not done at 10.18, but it at 10.30 trade when bar is closed and it could be a winner trade, but was not ejecuted because i stopped the bot, i have to leave out.

This trade was entered at the time bar was closed and was a winner trade.

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From last 3 months there is no more than 3 days with downtrend, so today should be a day where price should go up, however this have not happened until 15.00 PM, and the day finished almost at same price that was open.
I had 3 trades today, first trade was by error because i opened position out of my trading hours, later 11.30, at 11.45 aproximately, when i noticed that inmediately closed position and i got -1 tick negative. If i had not close my position inmediately i was loose 4 ticks instead only 1.

My second trade, as you can see in the picture below, all conditions were good to enter the trade, so i enter short 2438 at 14.41 PM with TP at 2434 and SL at 2442, but in few minutes prices reached my TP but my order was not filled, and 3 minutes later my Stop loss was reached. This happen only 10% of the times, perhaps i should increase stop loss a little.

Before third trade at 15.00 aprox. i have another opportunity, but i was distracted thinking whats going on with my last looser trade, we are not machines, after i recovered my attention to the chart, i entered in my third trade of the day short again at 2432 with TP 2429 and SL 2436 and i got +3 ticks.

 

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From 9.00 AM we have some other opportunities but ATR was too close,  perhaps you can find more secure to enter at 9.00 or 9.30 where looks a good downtrend but nobody cant know how many time price could continue with downtrend, but what we know is the highest probabilities to enter safely and have at least 4 ticks positives at trades 1 y 2.

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I had two more opportunities at 9:05 AM and 14:54 PM but in both cases price was very near from ATR bands and prefer to avoid this trades with less probabilities, anyway it was winner trades too. At 15.50 PM i have good conditions to enter with sufficient space upto ATR bands

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Trend suddently stopped and a lateral move makes me loose this trade, EMA20 was starting to loose its slope, i cant know it will be a double bottom, so this situation belong to the 10% of probabilities to loose using this strategy.
One hour later, At 15.55 PM have the opportunity to enter again although EMA8 was not touching the candle, but it was my lunch time.

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Good EMA8 and EMA20 angles, candle touching EMA8 and S4 support was crossed.

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In the morning i prefered dont risk me to enter before S2 was crossed because it was ranging last day in this zone, but when S2 was crossed it was too late to enter because EMA8 was too far, later it was ranging and EMA8 was flat until US open, at 17h. i enter long at 2539, R1 was not still clearly passed but i decided to enter because i have still space upto ATR bands.

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At 9:31 AM we have another opportunity but, checked that Euro futures was falling very fast and it will make eurostoxx fall too and i avoid that trade. This is the difference between discretional trading and automated systems, sometimes we use our intuition, or any other instruments information when we have doubts when trend is not very strong.

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